On July 28, Venezuela is set to hold a critical election that has the potential to restore democracy in the region and address rampant human rights abuses.
Nicolás Maduro has ruled Venezuela since 2013, and in this time, his authoritarian regime has committed numerous human rights abuses against its citizens, stifled democracy, and created a drastic humanitarian crisis. Millions are unable to access basic health care and substantial nutrition. Between 2016 and 2019, police and other security forces killed more than 19,000 people and continued to target civilians and political opposition. This, along with a severe economic crisis and high crime rates, caused 20% of the population to flee the country since 2014- roughly 7.7 million Venezuelans. An average of 2,000 people continue to leave every day.
The upcoming election holds promise for change. Edmundo González, a former diplomat advocating for democracy and reuniting families separated by migration, is challenging Maduro. González is ahead of Maduro in the polls, bringing hope for political freedom and a democratic future. However, Maduro has a long history of manipulating elections in his favor. Many predict the current Venezuelan president will not leave office willingly.
In an effort to influence the upcoming election, Maduro and his administration are resorting to widespread voter suppression tactics. In April, the education ministry announced a plan to rename 6,000 schools, many of which are used as voting locations – a decision that could disorient voters when locating their polling place.
The administration is further working to silence those who have left the country, citing residency and passport requirements for those voting from abroad. Of the 3.5-5.5 million Venezuelans living outside the country eligible to vote, only 69,000 are registered. This is a critical population, as many would likely vote against Maduro. The regime is also working to prevent effective election monitoring efforts, including disinviting the largest international observation mission coming from the European Union.
A third term for Maduro guarantees another six years of drastic human rights abuses and a likelihood that forced migration will increase. Millions more Venezuelans are likely to flee if Maduro wins the election. As opposition supporters leave the country, opposition influence within the region will decrease, along with the potential for democracy.
This election holds enormous weight for those looking to improve human rights, restore democracy in the country, and reunite with loved ones forced to leave. If González is successful, he will have the potential to usher in a new era of expanded freedoms and democracy for Venezuela. New leadership would also likely shift Venezuelan foreign policy, moving the country away from close relationships with autocracies such as China, Iran, and Russia.
Ruby Coleman is a McCain Institute junior fellow for the Human Rights & Freedom Program, and a rising senior at American University studying political science while simultaneously pursuing a master’s degree in political communication.