Nearly three years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and more than a decade after the annexation of Crimea, the world has come to expect Russian disinformation about Ukraine. However, Russia’s foreign interference campaigns in Europe are more extensive than many realize. Covering far more than just Ukraine, the campaigns aim to boost support for far-right political parties in Europe. In 2024 alone, the Russian government has conducted significant election interference in Moldova, among other countries.
Russian malign influence groups have operated in Moldova for years, attempting to destabilize its democracy and ensure that Moldovan leadership remains more closely aligned with Russia than with the West. In the past, Russia’s methods have included training anti-government groups and encouraging them to engage in protests calling for pro-Western President Maia Sandu to resign. The Russian government is also believed responsible for a group of fake Facebook accounts created–and later removed from the platform–this year, targeted at building support for pro-Russia political parties among the Russian-speaking Moldovan population. On October 20, Moldova held a critical election that included President Sandu’s reelection bid and a long-awaited referendum in which citizens could vote for or against European Union membership.
During Moldova’s relatively short period of independence since the fall of the Soviet Union, it has managed to maintain a relatively free and active democracy, with several parties competing for votes in free and fair elections. This year, however, Russia has escalated from inciting civil unrest to directly and openly interfering with a national election. Moldovan officials had known for months about Russian-funded illicit financial activities, including interference as brazen as depositing “huge sums” of money into ordinary Moldovan citizens’ bank accounts in an attempt to buy votes. Moldova traced these payments, and although the government could not stop them, it attempted to publicize them in order to bring attention to them. Moldovan officials have also worked to combat the influence of Russian oligarch Ilan Shor, who has previously been convicted of fraud in Moldova and who has funded massive disinformation campaigns in Moldova on behalf of Russia.
With help from the United States, the European Union, and NATO, Moldova has poured significant resources into countering Russian disinformation and interference leading up to its election. The election ended with the EU referendum just barely passing, receiving 50.4% of votes, and the presidential election went to a run-off on November 3, resulting in victory for incumbent President Sandu. Earlier polls indicated that citizens would more strongly support both the pro-Western president and her path toward EU citizenship for Moldova, so the election results likely reflect the impact of Russian interference attempts. Ultimately, both results reflect Moldovans’ choice of Europe over Russia, even in the face of disinformation aimed at convincing them otherwise.
Moldova’s position between the West and Russia makes it a prime target for Russian disinformation campaigns. The nature of Russian attacks on Moldova’s democracy provides insight into how Russia may attempt to interfere in other Western elections, including within the European Union and the United States. Moldova’s ability to overcome such attacks provides an example of success over Russian malign influence, but the closeness of the election results likely only encourages the Kremlin to continue.
