WASHINGTON, D.C. (SEPTEMBER 6, 2024) – As election day nears in the Republic of Georgia, the McCain Institute’s Senior Director for Global Democracy Laura Thornton explores the possible implications of the election of the Georgian Dream Party in October.
“Voters go to the polls in October and can choose between not only a future with the West or one with Russia but also democracy and Belarus-style autocracy,” Thornton writes. “Their struggle is not just a local fight for resources or freedoms; it’s a frontline defense against the spread of global autocracy, influencing international law, global governance, and the balance of power.” Read the article HERE or below.
Op-Ed: Georgia Faces a Crucial Vote: A Future with the West or Future Allied with Russia
The Hill
By Laura Thornton
Over the past decade, we have seen democratic backsliding and autocracy on the rise around the world. Strongman leaders from Hungary to the Philippines make pledges to restrict rights, crack down on civil society and the media, and even “be a dictator on day one.” But few campaign narratives have been more brazen than that of the Georgian Dream Party (GD) in Georgia, whose Prime Minister has promised to ban opposition parties and remove the seats of democratically elected opposition MPs should his party win in October.
When I moved to Georgia in 2014, it was a place of great promise. There had just been a peaceful transfer of power from the United National Movement government to a broad coalition of opposition parties. Widespread liberal democratic reforms were underway to
address shortcomings in the judiciary, parliament, and elections. Parliament passed non-discriminatory legislation and established a Gender Equality Council. The country forcefully pushed for EU and NATO membership, even establishing a Ministry to that effect. Russia, which occupies a quarter of Georgia, was clearly the enemy, while Europe and the U.S. were allies. Georgia was a partner in allied efforts in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
Over the next several years, however, those familiar whiffs of illiberalism – the gateway to autocracy — appeared. As in many backsliding democracies, one of the first signs of decline are attacks on the LGBTQ community, women, and ethnic or religious minorities. True to this playbook, Georgia codified heterosexual marriage in its constitution (though it was already illegal), blackmailed women in public life through video recordings of personal lives, and removed quotas for women, with misogyny on shocking display. Narratives attacking Turks, Muslims, and ethnic Azeri communities were also prevalent. Reverting to traditional hierarchies built on Orthodox Christian nationalism became a prevalent aspiration.
Before long, the broad coalition government crumbled, with all parties jumping ship except Georgian Dream, and democratic declines accelerated. GD increased attacks on civil society (calling them “enemies” and fascists), media, and independent institutions that hold government to account, such as the office of the Ombudsman. Judicial and electoral reform stalled. The new “foreign agents” law passed this year, which mirrors the Russian agents law, aims to squash the remaining check on GD, civil society and media, for good. It strictly curtails organizations that receive funding from the US and Europe labeling them as “foreign agents,” demanding unreasonable (and often impossible) paperwork, and threatening investigations, access to private personal information, and prison sentences. The streets of Tbilisi were filled with tens of thousands of protestors for months, with the government brutally attacking its own people.
GD’s new law and anti-democratic measures align with, and arguably necessitate, a sharp pivot in Georgia’s foreign policy trajectory. EU and NATO membership requires reforms that could threaten GD’s grip on power. Free and fair elections, impartial judiciary, and a robust civil society, and transparent institutions could level the playing field in a way where GD might not win. The Kremlin, on the other hand, has GD’s back when it comes to stamping out democracy. GD – and its informal ruler oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili – view electoral defeat as an existential threat, thus so is democracy.
The full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine also helped trigger GD’s flipping the script of who are Georgia’s friends and foes. Parroting Kremlin talking points from the start, GD leaders placed blame on NATO and the West, sputtered fevered nonsense about the existence of a “global war party” of Western leaders (as well as Hollywood and Soros) that
wants to drag Georgia into war, and has deepened the country’s ties to Russia through direct flights, sanctions evasion trade, and supportive rhetoric. Meanwhile, GD continues to insult U.S. and European leaders, diplomats, and organizations. GD is betting on Russia winning this war and has adopted a Vichy approach of appeasement and, subsequently, an abandonment of its traditional allies.
Nevertheless, I was still stunned by GD’s campaign promise to eliminate opposition parties and mandates. I have lived around the world, including many countries categorized as “not free,” but never have I heard an electoral pledge to end democracy. Even dictators like Putin want the veneer of multi-party competition. There can be no clearer demonstration of Georgia’s fall.
It is not, however, a foregone conclusion. Voters go to the polls in October and can choose between not only a future with the West or one with Russia but also democracy and Belarus-style autocracy. However, given the unlevel playing field, coopted election commission, lack of a unified opposition, and GD’s rampant abuse of state resources, the democracy vote must be overwhelming. Even then, an opposition victory could spell trouble and instability, given Russia’s pledge of support for GD and GD’s likely embrace of Maduro denialism.
Why does this matter to US and European policymakers? Georgia is a small country but is on the frontlines of a broader struggle against authoritarianism and Kremlin takeover. The Eastern frontier is fragile. Moldova is also heading to the polls in an environment inundated with Russian disinformation. Armenia is at a pivot point in its relationship with Russia, recently unshackled from certain security needs. Azerbaijan has already sunken into a dictatorship dangerous for those fighting for freedom. The domino effects are real, and the more countries that fall into autocracy make the entire region less safe and poses significant security risks, particularly on the Black Sea.
Hopefully, Georgia votes for freedom, but either way it is a cautionary tale. US and EU policymakers must react more quickly to early warning signs. But more importantly, we must go on offense to make the case for democracy to counter those who, in the words of Senator John McCain, “turn away from universal values and toward old ties of blood and race and sectarianism; harden resentment…towards immigrants and refugees and minority groups; are unable, and even unwilling, to separate truth from lies; and flirt with authoritarianism and romanticize it as our moral equivalent.”
Laura Thornton lived 25 years overseas working for democracy-promotion organizations from Thailand and Cambodia to Georgia. She is the senior director for global democracy at the McCain Institute.
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